World uranium resources are ample to meet requirements for the foreseeable future but timely investment in facilities will be needed to make sure production keeps pace with growing demand, according to a new edition of the flagship Red Book.
Officially named Uranium 2011: Resources, production and demand, this is the 24th edition of a periodic assessment published by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Universally known as the Red Book, it is currently published every two years and draws together official data on uranium exploration, resources and production, and uranium demand related to its use in nuclear reactors. The new edition covers data to the end of 2010.
Total identified uranium resources have increased by over 12% since the last edition, which covered data up to 2009, although lower cost resources have decreased significantly because of increased mining costs. Nevertheless, with total identified resources standing at 7,096,600 tU recoverable at costs of up to $260 per kg, identified resources are sufficient for over 100 years of supply for the world's nuclear fleet. (An additional 124,100 tU of resources have been reported by companies but are not included in official national figures.) So-called undiscovered resources - resources expected to exist based on existing geological knowledge but requiring significant exploration to confirm and define them - currently stand at 10,400,500 tU.
The increase in the resource base is the result of concerted exploration and development efforts. Some $2 billion was spent on uranium exploration and mine development in 2010, a 22% increase on 2008 figures, with a focus on areas with the potential for hosting in-situ leach (ISL) recovery operations.
ISL takes the lead
The report confirms Kazakhstan's position as the world's leading uranium producer in a period when global production has increased by over 25% since 2008, standing at 54,670 tU in 2010. Two more countries have joined the list of those reporting uranium production figures since the previous Red Book: Malawi, which started uranium production in 2009, and Germany, where uranium production resumed through uranium recovery from mine remediation work.
Globally, ISL is now the dominant mining method, accounting for 39% of 2010 production thanks to significant ISL production increases in Kazakhstan. Underground mining's share stood at 32%, open pit mining 23% and co-product and by-product recovery from gold and copper mining operations making up 6%.
Meeting demand
440 commercial nuclear power reactors were in operation around the world at the end of 2010, representing 375 GWe of capacity and cumulatively requiring 63,875 tU per year. By 2035, the report found, this can be expected to grow to between 540 GWe of capacity requiring 97,645 tU and 746 GWe needing 136,385 tU. The scenarios take into account the effects of policies introduced by some countries following the March 2011 Fukushima accident.
Currently defined uranium resources are "more than adequate" to meet the high case demand to 2035, but not without "timely investments" in uranium production facilities, the report warns. "Significant investment and technical expertise will be required to bring these resources to the market and to identify additional resources. Sufficiently high uranium market prices will be needed to fund these activities, especially in light of the rising costs of production," it notes.
Secondary sources of uranium (stockpiles of natural and enriched uranium, downblended weapons-grade uranium, reprocessed used fuel and the re-enrichment of depleted uranium tails) will still continue to be required, although their role is expected to decline post-2013 when agreements between Russia and the USA to downblend ex-military highly enriched uranium for use in nuclear fuel expire.
"Regardless of the role that nuclear energy ultimately plays in meeting future electricity demand, the uranium resource base... is more than adequate to meet projected requirements for the foreseeable future. The challenge is to continue developing environmentally sustainable mining operations to bring increasing quantities of uranium to the market in a timely fashion," the report concludes.
Researched and written
by World Nuclear News
by World Nuclear News
-----
20 July 2010
Uranium resources for at least a century
Worldwide uranium resources, production and demand are all increasing, according to the latest edition of the Red Book. However, total identified uranium resources will last for over 100 years at current consumption rates.
The amount of uranium identified that can be economically mined rose to some 6.3 million tonnes, a 15.5% increase compared with the last edition of Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand - commonly known as the Red Book - published every two years by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The high-cost category (under $100 per pound of U3O8) was reintroduced into the new edition of the Red Book for the first time since the 1980s in response to the generally increased market prices for uranium in recent years (despite the decline since mid-2007), as well as increasing mining costs and expectations of increasing demand as new nuclear power plants are being planned and constructed.
The NEA commented: "Although total identified resources have increased overall, there has been a significant reduction in lower-cost resources owing to increased mining costs."
"The recognition by an increasing number of governments that nuclear power can produce competitively priced, baseload electricity that is essentially free of greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with the role that nuclear can play in enhancing security of energy supply, increases the prospects for growth in nuclear generating capacity, although the magnitude of that growth remains to be determined," the NEA noted.
IAEA projections for the future of nuclear power see it expanding from 375 GWe today to between 500 and 785 GWe by 2035. Such growth would cause an increase in uranium demand from 66,500 tonnes per year to between 87,370 and 138,165 tonnes.
"Even in the high-growth scenario to 2035, less than half of the identified resources described in this edition would be consumed," the NEA concluded. "The challenge remains to develop mines in a timely and environmentally sustainable fashion as uranium demand increases. A strong market will be required for these resources to be developed within the time frame required to meet future uranium demand."
Worldwide exploration and mine development expenditures in 2008 totalled over $1.6 billion, an increase of 133% compared to updated 2006 figures, despite declining market prices since mid-2007. Most major producing countries reported increasing expenditures, as efforts to identify new resources and bring new production centres online moved forward.
"As observed in the past, increased investment in exploration has resulted in important discoveries and the identification of new resources," the NEA said. "It is foreseen that, if market conditions improve further, additional exploration will be stimulated leading to the identification of additional resources of economic interest."
"While the status of supply and demand is considered from today's technologies perspective, it should be recognised that the deployment of advanced reactor and fuel cycle technologies can positively affect the long-term availability of uranium and could conceivably extend it to thousands of years," the NEA noted.
Researched and written
by World Nuclear News
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario